Seeking Alpha
2026-09-04 15:58:23

Strive: Strong Balance Sheet And Effective Risk Management Justify mNAV Premium

Summary Strive, Inc. is a Bitcoin treasury company focused on accumulating Bitcoin via capital raised from equity and debt issuance. Currently Strive holds 21,356 BTC. ASST offers preferred stock (SATA) with a 13% annual dividend, distributed daily and structured to potentially defer taxes for investors. A Bitcoin recovery, successful Bitcoin yield execution, and stronger risk management could support mNAV above 1.6x and a $38 bull-case price target. Bitcoin volatility, cash burn, operating losses, dilution risk, and regulatory uncertainty remain the key risks to Strive’s investment thesis. Investment Thesis I am assigning a Buy rating to Strive, Inc. (ASST). This represents an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to Bitcoin. The company is currently focused on increasing its Bitcoin holdings and enhancing the value of Bitcoin through each common share. Strive has settled all its obligations and has nearly zero debt. Making its balance sheet stronger. If Bitcoin's price recovers and Strive effectively executes its Bitcoin yield strategies, along with improvement in risk management through the True North acquisition, the market would assign a higher valuation multiple to the company. In this situation the company's mNAV could rise to 1.6x times. That could increase the stock price up to $38. Which represents 58% upward from the current stock price of $24. Among its peers, Strive is the only company that is trading at a premium based on mNAV. A strong balance sheet and effective risk management justify this premium valuation. Company Overview Strive is a Bitcoin treasury company. It operates under two business segments: the asset management business that provides investment-related services to clients and generates revenue through fees, and the Bitcoin treasury business that accumulates Bitcoin using the company's corporate capital. Its primary objective is to buy Bitcoin and hold it for the long term. Its basic requirement is to achieve a return from Bitcoin that enhances shareholders’ value over the long term. It is developing strategies that provide shareholders with higher returns compared to Bitcoin. Semler Scientific was a healthcare technology company. Strive acquired Semler Scientific and rebranded its healthcare business as Clinivanta. Now, Strive also operates a healthcare business, but this is not Strive's main future focus. The QuantaFlo is the primary product offered by Clinivanta. It is an FDA-cleared medical technology that helps to assess blood circulation and vascular problems. Strive's intention is to monetize the healthcare business in the future and use that capital to support its core Bitcoin strategy. Business Model The primary objective of the company is to raise capital and accumulate Bitcoin. It mainly raises money from capital markets. Investors provide financial support, and the company uses this money to buy bitcoin. It uses two main methods to raise funding. It issues debt and equity securities to raise funding and uses that capital for Bitcoin accumulation. Later, if the price of Bitcoin increases, the company's asset value will also increase. This growth can increase the value of shareholders in the future. This is the core business model of Strive. In normal shares, investors hold ordinary shareholders' status in the company, but with preferred stock, investors are granted a special economic right, such as a guaranteed dividend. SATA represents the preferred stock issued by Strive. It offers investors an annual dividend rate of 13%. The dividends are distributed daily in cash, and due to the daily compounding structure, the effective annual yields can reach approximately 13.88%. Investors can get regular income through the preferred security after investing in SATA. Normally, dividend income is subject to taxation at the time it is received. If the dividend is considered similar to a return of capital (ROC), conceptually, it is viewed as the company returning some portion of the investors' original capital, not the profit. Therefore, tax may not be applied immediately like income but may be deferred, subject to applicable tax rules. The attractive dividend and tax structure of the scheme could attract investors to invest. Which helps the Strive to raise capital to buy Bitcoin. In August 2026, Strive holds approximately 21,356 BTC . This is the most important asset for the company's business model. The overall value of the company's underlying assets will increase if the price of bitcoin increases. Shareholders get Bitcoin exposure through each share. If the company issues a large number of shares, the amount of Bitcoin exposure per share may decrease. That's why the amount of Bitcoin held per share is a very important concept. Strive has eliminated all outstanding debt. Also, there are no outstanding loan interests associated with the company's Bitcoin holdings. The company currently has no debt obligations. Competitive Challenges Strive's business heavily depends on the performance of Bitcoin. A decline in Bitcoin's price could lower the value of the company's Bitcoin holdings, which may negatively impact the company's financial results and investors' sentiment. This could put downward pressure on the stock price. Although SATA's ROC treatment provides tax-deferral benefits to investors, the company's continuous net losses can raise concerns about its ability to generate profits. Investors' confidence can potentially be reduced in the company. This could affect share price. The company must compete with various businesses such as other Bitcoin treasury companies, private funds, crypto exchanges, Bitcoin miners, and Bitcoin ETFs to raise capital. Its business heavily depends on Bitcoin. A slowdown in Bitcoin adoption or a prolonged period of low prices could put significant pressure on the company's financial stability. That means the company's exposure to risk is not well diversified. The company has acquired a healthcare business and rebranded it as Clinivanta. Integrating an acquisition, managing the business, and generating revenue from it all come with certain costs and risks. The company's ISS Governance QualityScore is 10, which is the lowest possible score. It can raise concern among institutional investors. The regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry is still evolving; regulators may introduce new rules in the future. If future regulations unfavorably impact Strive's products or its financing structure, the company may need to change its business model. Primary Peers: Bitcoin Treasury Company Strive also faces competition from other companies whose business model is similar to Bitcoin Treasury. Strategy ( MSTR ) is one of the largest and most famous players in the Bitcoin treasury. It holds approximately 843,000+ BTC, significantly more than Strive's 21,356 BTC. Strategy is the most established competitor of Strive. Twenty One Capital ( XXI ) is also a Bitcoin-focused company. It holds around 43,500 BTC, again more than Strive's holding. Additionally, Metaplanet ( MTPLF ), a Japanese company, has also adopted the Bitcoin treasury strategy and currently holds approximately 43,000 BTC . If this company expands its operations into the U.S., Strive's competition may increase. All three of these peers operate under a similar business model to Strive. They issue debt and equity to raise capital and then use this funding to accumulate the Bitcoin and hold it for the long term. Q2 2026 Financial Performance Breakdown In Q2 2026, Strive generated $2.94 million in revenue, yet the company reported a GAAP net loss of $257.6 million. At first glance, it appears the company performed incredibly poorly. But after analyzing the report, it became clear that the primary reason for the loss was not due to normal business expenses but rather a result of the fair-value accounting loss associated with Bitcoin. In Q2 2026, Bitcoin reported an unrealized net loss of approximately $228 million on digital assets. The primary factor contributing to the company's loss was the fluctuation in the market value of Bitcoin. By Jun. 30, the company held approximately 19,864 BTC, with a fair value of around approximately $1.2 billion and the Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis of approximately $1.883 billion. On Jun 30, the Bitcoin market price was well below the company's aggregate acquisition cost. Additionally, in Q2 the company acquired $463.3 million worth of BTC. In Q2 2025, the revenue was $1.51 million, which increased to $2.94 million in Q2 2026, reflecting 95% year-over-year growth. In Q2 2026, it generated $1.51 million in revenue from investment advisory, almost similar to the $1.49 million in revenue in Q2 2025. In Q2 2026, the medical device business generated approximately $1.39 million in revenue; because of this reason, Q2 revenue rose to 95%. In Q2 '26, revenue was $2.94 million, but the company's operating expenses totaled approximately $24.4 million. As a result, the company's core business operations were not profitable in Q2. A significant portion of these expenses was given to employees as compensation, which amounted to $16.3 million. Additional expenses included the general and administrative cost of about $6.4 million and fund administration expenses of $1.5 million. The company also allocated $5.7 million in stock-based compensation to its employees in Q2 2026. Also, after the merger with Semler Scientific, employees' compensations and bonuses increased. The company also reported a non-GAAP net loss of $283 million. In Q2 2026, the company paid $26.2 million worth of preferred stock dividends. In Q2 2026, Strive's income statement indicates a greater loss, but the balance sheet reflects an improvement in financial position. The total assets of the company increased from $745.5 million in December 2025 to $1.38 billion as of June 30. The company holds $145.5 million in cash that can be used for ongoing business operations and meeting financial obligations. The total liabilities are reported at $28.6 million. The company has a low level of debt in Q2. The company did not depend on margin loans or debt to acquire new Bitcoin during this period. The company faces a lower risk of being forced to sell assets or facing pressure from lenders in case of volatility in the Bitcoin price. Q3 2026: Key Catalysts In Q2 2026, Strive booked an estimated unrealized accounting loss of about $228 million due to the fall in Bitcoin's price. If the Bitcoin price recovers in Q3, Strive might then get an unrealized accounting profit based on the fair value of the Bitcoin. Q2 loss could recover partially or significantly. Therefore, investors should closely monitor daily Bitcoin price movements and the hedging strategies of the company. The recovery above $60,000 to $65,000 may unwind the loss of Q2. SATA pays a 13% annualized cash dividend on its preferred stock, which is considered quite appealing. Investors should keep an eye on the company's cash flow, whether it is generating enough cash from its operations to pay dividends or if it is selling other assets such as Bitcoin to meet its dividend obligations. Strive has acquired Semler Scientific, and the strategic purpose of this acquisition is to accumulate more Bitcoin. Investors should evaluate whether the company is monetizing its healthcare business. They should also consider whether the healthcare segment is experiencing growth. The company may use that fund to purchase more Bitcoin, to fund dividends, or to potentially dilute existing shares in the future. If a company aims to raise additional funds in the future, it may issue more shares; the total number of shares will increase. Existing shareholders' percentage ownership and per-share Bitcoin exposure may decrease. Therefore, investors should pay attention to announcements related to new equity offerings, convertible notes, and ATM programs. Issuing new shares at a lower price can negatively impact the value of existing shareholders' holdings. Investors should also pay attention to how Strive is managing its volatility by using options, derivatives, or other hedging strategies. SATA Dividends: Sustainability Analysis Investors are uncertain about the company's 13% dividend policy , especially since the Bitcoin price has remained at its current level for an extended period. If the company can continue to pay a 13% dividend to its SATA investors without selling its Bitcoin holdings, this would indicate that the company is in a strong financial position. As of June 30, 2026, investors hold a total of 7,829,502 SATA shares, which have an aggregate liquidation preference of $783 million. If the number of SATA shares, the liquidation preference amount of $783 million, and the dividend rate of 13% remain the same, then the company has to pay approximately $101.8 million in dividends over the next year, or about $8.5 million each month. Up to August 7, Strive had $154.9 million in cash and cash equivalents. If we consider only the dividend payments and assume that the company does not have any other expenses, the $154.9 million in cash would be sufficient to cover approximately 18.3 months of SATA dividends. This 18.3-month calculation does not include Strive's operating expenses. In Q2, Strive's total expenses were approximately $24.4 million, of which $16.3 million was for employee compensation. Over the past six months, the company has spent approximately $39.4 million on operations. Therefore, if operating expenses are considered, the $154.9 million in cash would last for a shorter period than it would if only dividends were considered. In Q2, the company declared $26.2 million in preferred dividends, of which the company has paid $22.4 million in cash, and $3.8 million was added to the preferred dividends payable. This suggests that the company is managing its cash outflow timings, which lowers immediate expenditures. Strive does not rely solely on existing cash reserves to pay dividends; during times of need, the company can sell class A common shares to raise cash for dividend payments. From July 1 to August 7, the company sold 3,415,998 class A common shares, raising approximately $43 million in gross proceeds. The company's ATM (at-the-market) program still has the authority to sell up to $2.12 billion worth of class A common shares to raise additional capital. Through this, however, shareholders' ownership would be diluted. Valuation excel There is a significant variation in the mNAV (market net asset value) among the four Bitcoin treasury companies. The mNAV of Strive is 1.30x, which is the highest, while Metaplanet has an mNAV of 0.77x, the lowest. The market is valuing Strive at a 1.30x premium while offering a 0.77x deep discount to Metaplanet. Strive is the only company trading above 1.0x. The reasons why Strive is trading above its parity are the company's strong balance sheet, absence of debt, and effective risk management. Strategy holds 840,477 BTC, yet its mNAV is 0.97x, below 1.0x. Investors' confidence is negatively affected by Strategy's high debt and operating losses. This is why, despite being the largest Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy's mNAV does not trade at a premium. Twenty One Capital's mNAV trades at 0.85x. The discount is due to $484.5 million in convertible debt, collateralized Bitcoin, and the company's lack of meaningful operating revenue. Metaplanet also trades at 0.77x, which is more of a discount compared to the other three Bitcoin treasury companies, as investors are concerned about Metaplanet's high Bitcoin acquisition cost. The market evaluates companies based on their financial health, level of debt, and how efficiently management executes strategies to minimize unnecessary risk and dilution for shareholders. The mNAV reflects investors' confidence in the company's financial stability and its ability to successfully implement strategies. Strive generates its revenue from two primary business segments. The company has earned $1.5 billion from its investment advisory services, representing 51.41% of total revenue, and $1.3 billion from its medical device business, representing 47.19% of total business. However, the operating margin of -8483% indicates that the company's operating expenses significantly exceed its revenue. This suggests that the core business is highly unprofitable. Strive has a current ratio of 7.62, which shows that its short-term assets exceed its short-term liabilities, which indicates the company's short-term financial position is strong. However, in the last 12 months, the company reported levered free cash flow of -$455 million, suggesting a significant amount of cash outflow. Strive issues more shares to raise funds for its operations and Bitcoin purchase. That can put pressure on existing shareholders' ownership. There is a dilution risk. Additionally, 26.33% of the publicly tradable shares are in short positions, reflecting a bearish outlook towards the company's stock. Strive is currently trading at 2.97 times its book value, indicating that the market is assigning a premium to the accounting value of its net assets. Additionally, the company's P/S of 113.54x is extremely high. Investors are not valuing a company based on how much revenue it generates, but market valuation is being driven by its Bitcoin holdings and expectations for future growth potential. Strategy holds the largest Bitcoin portfolio. It has a 1.63x P/B value ratio. The company reported a negative operating margin of -6800%. The company has a $6.77 billion debt. Strategy has more risk compared to Strive because of heavy debt. Twenty One Capital recorded nearly a - $1.5 billion loss in H1 2026, which is linked to the decline of the Bitcoin price. This company does not have any other meaningful source to generate revenue except Bitcoin. That's why investors are assigning this company a lower valuation. That's why the company's mNAV is trading at a 0.85x moderate discount. Metaplanet is about to use its 2100 BTC to establish a US-based, Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury platform, Superplanet . In this venture, Metaplanet will hold 95.7% of the ownership in Superplanet. It is even less than 5% of its total Bitcoin holdings. Even after the deal, it has approximately 40900 BTC. Metaplanet is moving its Bitcoin treasury model into the US market. Through this, US investors can get easier access to invest in Bitcoin, and the liquidity of Metaplanet may improve. Additionally, in the last 90 days, the share price has fallen 50%; that indicates investors are skeptical about its new market strategy. excel In the bull case scenario, it is assumed that Bitcoin's price will rise to $100,000, which will increase the NAV per share to $23.61. The company is expected to execute its Bitcoin yield strategies in a way that the BTC value would increase relative to each common share. Additionally, True North Risk Management Acquisition is anticipated to successfully manage the risk and volatility of the company. If investors believe that Strive's business and risk management have become stronger, then they could assign a higher valuation multiple to the stock. Because of this, mNAV can remain above 1.6x, leading to a stock price target of $38. In the worst-case scenario, it is assumed that the company would be unable to manage its fund efficiently, which would increase the cash outflow. If the company starts issuing more shares to raise more capital and purchase more Bitcoin, this action would increase the risk of dilution. In this situation the mNAV could compress below 0.80x, leading to a stock price target of $11. Currently the stock is trading at $24. Which represents the base case scenario. Risk If the bitcoin price falls drastically, the company will not be able to stop its cash burning through effective risk management. If the company raises capital by issuing shares, this increases the risk of dilution. In this scenario mNAV would compress further. My thesis would be wrong, and the buy rating would change to sell. Conclusion Compared to peers, Strive's mNAV is trading at a premium of 1.30x. Also, the P/S of 113.54x is extremely high. Investors are paying it for the future growth. The company has a stronger balance sheet compared to its peers. Very little debt compared to net assets. So, I am assigning a buy rating to this stock. From the current price, the stock has the potential for a 58% upward movement. For the investors who want to buy the stock, they can buy at a $24 current price.

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