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The U.S. dollar has climbed to a two-week high, but currency strategists remain surprisingly reluctant to buy into the rally. A Reuters poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 showed the euro holding around $1.16 in three months, rising to $1.17 in six months and reaching $1.18 within a year. The three- and six-month forecasts were both raised by one cent from August. More strikingly, 34 of 66 FX strategists said the greater risk is that the dollar trades weaker than their current three-month forecasts rather than stronger. That creates an unusual disconnect with what markets are doing now. Dollar Rallies as Oil and Fed Risks Build The Dollar Index rose toward 99.8 on Wednesday, its highest level since mid-August, as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting pushed investors toward safe-haven assets and drove oil prices higher. The euro slipped toward roughly $1.1565 during the session. At the same time, futures markets are pricing in two additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached about 4.82%, close to a three-year high. Coinpaper has already tracked the increasingly hawkish Fed outlook , after Chair Kevin Warsh warned that inflation remains too high and pushed September hike probabilities above 50%. Strategists Doubt the Fed Will Deliver What Markets Price The reason for the bearish dollar view is not that strategists expect immediate Fed easing. Instead, many doubt the central bank will tighten as aggressively as markets currently expect. BNY Investments chief economist Vincent Reinhart told Reuters that the Fed is unlikely to deliver the amount of tightening priced into markets. Citi’s Dan Tobon similarly pointed to Fed repricing as the key variable for currencies over coming months. Warsh’s limited forward guidance has made that calculation harder. Coinpaper’s coverage of the latest Fed minutes showed policymakers divided over how much further rates may need to rise if inflation stays elevated. The stronger dollar has also become a direct issue for risk assets. Bitcoin recently fell below $77,000 as higher yields and Warsh’s hawkish message strengthened the greenback, a relationship examined in Coinpaper’s dollar and Bitcoin coverage . Dollar Bulls Have Geopolitics on Their Side There is one major risk to the weaker-dollar consensus: geopolitics. The renewed U.S.-Iran conflict has driven oil higher and strengthened safe-haven demand for dollars. Citi’s Tobon acknowledged that a prolonged escalation could invalidate bearish dollar forecasts. Positioning nevertheless suggests traders are becoming less convinced by the rally. Reuters reported that net long dollar positions have fallen sharply from an 11-year high, while 40 of 55 strategists expect those long positions either to decline further or remain broadly unchanged by the end of September. For now, the FX market is sending two competing signals: the dollar is strengthening, but the people forecasting its next year increasingly expect that strength to fade.