Bitcoin's Options Tape Supports Recovery, But ETH Gives A Less Clean Read

Summary Bitcoin (BTC-USD) options flow post-April recovery is constructive, but not yet a full bullish regime; watch for confirmation above $82K–$84K call area. BTC’s April 17 and April 23 sessions showed strong call-heavy flow with positive net delta, but April 22 highlighted risks of call-selling and non-directional positioning. I remain selectively constructive on BTC, monitoring daily PCR trends, IV spikes, Jun26 $70K put activity, and Dec26 call flow for confirmation or warning signs. ETH-USD lags BTC in conviction, with uneven options signals and persistent short-side futures pressure, making it less attractive until BTC confirms a stronger regime. Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Nataliia Gurinenko as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access. Click here to find out more » 1. Investment Thesis Bitcoin's ( BTC-USD ) options flow looks constructive after the April recovery, but I would not call it a new bullish regime yet. The better BTC reads came after spot moved from the early-April stress area around $66.7K-68.4K toward the $76K-78K area. The strongest evidence was not just a lower put/call ratio. It was the combination of call-heavy flow, positive net delta, and repeated concentration around higher call strikes. My current working case is recovery and consolidation above the $74K-76K recovery area, with conditional upside only if BTC can keep attracting confirmed flow around the $82K-84K call area. BTC gives the cleaner read because several high-volume April sessions had positive delta confirmation. ETH ( ETH-USD ) is less clean: it had defensive days, single-instrument distortion, and weaker delta confirmation on the same day BTC looked more constructive. The practical conclusion is simple. I would keep BTC on watch for continuation only if call-heavy flow remains supported by positive net delta and the futures curve stops showing near-term stress. For ETH, I would need cleaner adjusted PCR and better delta confirmation before treating it as equally constructive. 2. Market Context The data window runs from January 1 to April 28, 2026, inclusive. I exclude the next calendar day because it is only the technical report boundary, not part of the completed market data. For this article, I am focused on the April recovery segment because that is where the current investment question sits. BTC started April near the stress area. On April 1, the report showed BTC spot at $68,420, with PCR at 1.05 and options volume of $42.99M. On April 2, spot was lower at $66,735, with PCR at 1.81 and volume of $56.39M. By April 17, BTC had moved to $76,532, while options volume increased to $132.03M. On April 22 and April 23, BTC traded around $78.2K and $78.0K respectively. That shift matters because the options market did not simply follow spot higher in a straight line. Some sessions showed cleaner upside positioning. Other sessions looked call-heavy on raw PCR but failed the delta check. That is why I am not comfortable calling the entire April move a clean bullish regime. ETH followed the recovery but never gave me the same quality of confirmation. ETH spot was $2,130 on April 1, reached $2,395 on April 17, and traded near $2,347 on April 23. The price path improved, but the options read was more uneven. The latest daily observations after April 23 were too thin to treat as full market signals. BTC options volume was only $0.26M on April 24, $0.01M on April 27, and $0.03M on April 28. ETH showed the same issue, with $0.08M on April 24 and only $0.03M on April 28. I therefore treat April 23 as the last meaningful full options-flow reference in this article. 3. Options Market Signal The cleanest BTC upside session in the report was April 17. BTC spot was $76,532, PCR was 0.33, options volume was $132.03M, and net delta was positive at $22.68M. The dominant instrument was the May 29 $82K call, with a 7.9% share of the day's flow. The short-dated IV spike reading was also elevated at 24.59. What makes April 17 useful is the confirmation behind the headline PCR. A low PCR alone can be misleading, but this time it was accompanied by positive net delta and large activity around upside calls. The largest high-activity line that day was the May 29 $82K call with about $10.38M in volume. There was also heavy flow in the April 24 $75K call, with about $9.01M in volume. I still would not describe that as a guaranteed directional signal. I cannot see whether all of that exposure was opening, closing, part of a spread, or hedged elsewhere. But as a tape read, April 17 was constructive. April 23 was the second important BTC day. Spot was $78,041, PCR was 0.53, options volume was $52.66M, and net delta was positive at $7.04M. The dominant print was the December 25 $84K call, which accounted for 18.1% of the day's flow. The IV spike reading was 8.96. That gives BTC a better read than ETH. The December $84K call concentration shows upside interest in a longer-dated contract, while net delta was positive. I would be careful with the execution side because high-activity data around the December $84K call does not allow a clean intent claim. Still, as part of the broader April recovery, this was more constructive than a neutral tape. April 22 is the warning label. BTC spot was $78,237, PCR was 0.38, and options volume was high at $102.09M. On the surface, that looks aggressively call-heavy. But net delta was negative at -$16.33M. The dominant instrument was the June 26 $60K call, and the largest high-activity line in that session was also the June 26 $60K call, with about $7.99M in volume. That is not the same as clean upside demand. A call-heavy PCR with negative net delta can point to call selling, delta reduction, or structured flow that does not translate into straightforward bullish exposure. For me, this is the main reason to keep the thesis constructive but not euphoric. The PCR distortion checks reinforce the same discipline. On April 5, BTC raw PCR was 1.11, but after adjusting for a dominant call instrument that represented 24.3% of the day, adjusted PCR moved to 2.27. That is a very different read from the raw number. On April 24, BTC also showed PCR distortion. April 27 and April 28 were also too thin to use as full daily signals. My BTC read, therefore, is selective. April 17 and April 23 support recovery. April 22 says the market was not giving a clean one-way message. 4. Futures and Spot The futures layer does not give me a uniformly bullish confirmation. It is more useful as a risk filter. BTC's near-term curve was still stressed. The May 1 BTC contract showed average basis of -0.0423%, and the May 8 contract showed average basis of -0.0071%. Longer maturities were different: the May 29 contract showed average basis of 0.2327%, June 26 was 1.1699%, September 25 was 2.2268%, and December 25 was 3.3908%. I read that as short-term stress sitting inside a longer curve that has not fully broken down. That is not bearish enough to cancel the options recovery signal, but it is not a clean confirmation either. The daily basis readings around the key BTC options sessions were also mixed. On April 17, BTC basis averaged -0.0143%. On April 22, it was -0.0201%. On April 23, it was -0.0100%. This is why I would not treat the move as a full structural bullish reset. The options tape improved, but near-term futures still carried stress. Futures and perpetual flow also need careful reading. On April 23, BTC perpetual volume was $246.97M, while BTC futures volume was $50.03M. The future leg showed a high buy ratio, but I would not use buy ratio alone to claim intent. It is useful context, not proof. Liquidations were not the main story in this part of the report. BTC liquidation data on April 22 showed $0.339M of sell-side liquidations on $1.131B of volume, with liquidation share at only 0.03%. On April 23, sell-side liquidations were $0.232M on $297M of volume, with liquidation share at 0.08%. These readings can add forced-flow context, but they do not justify saying liquidations drove the move. 5. BTC Scenario Map I use the levels below as positioning markers from the report - spot zones, dominant instruments, and high-activity strikes. Not as mechanical support or resistance lines. Scenario Condition Key Level What Confirms It What Invalidates It Recovery / consolidation BTC holds the April recovery area and avoids renewed put-heavy pressure $74K-76K area Adjusted PCR stays stable, net delta does not turn sharply negative on high-volume days, longer futures maturities remain in contango Loss of the recovery area together with put-heavy PCR and negative net delta Conditional upside BTC accepts the higher call-concentration zone $82K-84K call area Call-heavy flow with positive net delta, repeated activity around upside calls, and improvement in near-term basis Call-heavy PCR appears again with negative net delta, especially on high volume Defensive reset BTC loses the recovery structure and protection demand broadens $70K-72K area Put-heavy PCR, negative net delta, weaker spot, and near-term backwardation spreading into longer maturities BTC reclaims the recovery area while delta turns positive again My working view is the first scenario. The second scenario becomes more credible if the next high-volume BTC sessions look more like April 17 and April 23, and less like April 22. 6. ETH ETH is where I would be more careful. On April 21, ETH looked defensive. Spot was $2,315, PCR was 3.11, options volume was $14.78M, and the dominant instrument was the June 26 $2,000 put, with a 14% share of the day's flow. The IV spike reading was 9.26. Net delta, however, was positive at $1.29M. That means I would not call April 21 a clean bearish day. The put-heavy flow points to protection or defensive positioning, but positive net delta prevents a simple short-side interpretation. April 23 is even more important for the BTC versus ETH comparison. ETH raw PCR was 0.47, which looks bullish at first glance. But the dominant instrument was the April 24 $2,000 call, representing 39% of the day. After adjusting for that concentration, PCR moved to 1.12. ETH also had negative net delta of -$1.15M that day. BTC on April 23 had PCR of 0.53 and positive net delta of $7.04M. ETH had lower raw PCR at 0.47, but delta was negative and adjusted PCR was much less constructive. That is the divergence I would not ignore. ETH futures also looked less clean. On April 19, ETH daily basis averaged -0.0428%. On April 21, it was -0.0253%. On April 23, it was -0.0204%. The term structure was not fully broken because longer maturities stayed in mild contango, but near-term stress was more visible than I would like to see for a clean ETH continuation thesis. My ETH framework is therefore more conditional than BTC: Scenario Condition Key Level What Confirms It What Invalidates It ETH follows BTC, but less cleanly ETH holds the recent recovery zone $2.3K–$2.4K area Adjusted PCR improves, net delta stabilizes, and basis stress fades Renewed put-heavy flow with negative delta ETH confirmation ETH call flow broadens beyond one dominant print $2.5K–$2.6K call area Positive net delta and less PCR distortion Raw PCR looks bullish but adjusted PCR moves back above 1 ETH defensive Protection demand broadens and futures stress persists $2.0K–$2.2K area Put-heavy PCR, negative delta, and weak near-term basis Recovery in spot and delta with cleaner adjusted PCR For now, ETH is not bearish enough to reject the broader recovery read, but it is not strong enough to confirm BTC. 7. Risks to the Thesis The risk I would watch most closely is a repeat of April 22: call-heavy PCR, high volume, and negative net delta. If that pattern returns, the tape would look less like upside demand and more like call selling, delta reduction, or structured exposure that does not support a clean continuation read. PCR distortion is another issue. When one dominant instrument carries too much of the daily flow, the raw number can look cleaner than the market really is. I would rather see adjusted PCR stay constructive than rely on a headline PCR that fades after concentration adjustment. The futures curve is also still a filter, not a green light. BTC's longer maturities remained in mild contango, but near-term basis was negative. If that stress moves further out the curve, I would treat it as a warning that the recovery is losing support. ETH is the cross-asset risk. BTC can still be the cleaner asset, but if ETH defensive flow broadens, adjusted PCR remains above 1, and net delta stays weak, I would not call the recovery broadly confirmed across majors. IV repricing can cut both ways. Short-dated IV spikes can fit a volatility-demand thesis, but if the repricing starts looking more like panic hedging than constructive positioning, the recovery setup becomes less attractive. The latest prints also deserve restraint. April 24, April 27, and April 28 were too small in options volume to carry the same weight as April 17, April 22, or April 23. I would not want to overfit the thesis to those thin sessions. 8. Final Investor Takeaway This is not a price prediction. It is my current reading of BTC and ETH market structure from Deribit inverse options and futures data. BTC looks more constructive than ETH after the April recovery. The strongest BTC evidence came from April 17 and April 23, where call-heavy flow had better delta confirmation. But April 22 prevents me from calling this a clean new bullish regime, because call-heavy PCR came with negative net delta. For me, this is the key distinction between a recovery and a regime change. The key signal to watch: A daily close above $80K with continued call-bias flow and stable IV. If that happens, I would be more willing to take the continuation case seriously. If BTC stalls and reverses below $75K, watch whether put activity picks up in the Jun26 expiry - that would be the first options-level signal that the recovery thesis is being reassessed. ETH is not the leading signal here. BTC gives a cleaner read right now. ETH will follow if BTC confirms - but ETH-specific positioning does not show the same quality of upside conviction, and the persistent short-side pressure in futures is a real divergence I would not ignore. Four things to monitor: Daily PCR trend, IV spike scores on volatile sessions, changes in activity around the Jun26 $70K put area, and whether longer-dated Dec26 call flow continues. If those stay aligned - low PCR, stable IV, intact put floor, continued call flow - I would stay with the consolidation/recovery view. This is a market structure reading, not a price prediction. Options positioning describes how participants are positioned - not where price will go. Data: Deribit inverse options + futures, January 1-April 28, 2026 inclusive. Linear options excluded. Analysis: IVCompass . Disclosure: The author and IVCompass have no beneficial position in Bitcoin or Ethereum (BTC-USD or ETH-USD), including spot, options, futures, or other derivatives, and have no current plans to initiate such positions. Original Source: Author