HODL: Bitcoin's Soars To A Multi-Month High Amid Quiet Relative Strength (Technical Analysis)

Summary I rate VanEck Bitcoin ETF a buy, citing recent absolute and relative strength versus equities and gold. HODL benefits from strong liquidity, a low 0.20% expense ratio, and tight bid/ask spreads, supporting efficient trading. Bitcoin’s technicals show bullish momentum and seasonality, with April–July historically delivering robust median returns. Key resistance sits at $80,100–mid-$80k; a breakout could confirm February’s low as the durable bottom for HODL. Bitcoin flashed across investors’ radars on Wednesday, April 22. The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency scaled $79,000 for the first time since early February as a risk-on appetite permeated markets, despite Brent crude oil flirting with $100 per barrel. Ongoing uncertainty regarding the conflict in Iran once weighed on crypto, but now it seems to be a significantly smaller factor... maybe even a bullish one. Today, I’m analyzing the VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL). With Bitcoin pacing for its best close in months, I remain bullish on the token. Today, I’ll offer a fresh look at bitcoin technicals, performance across timeframes, fundamentals from an intermarket perspective, and a seasonal assessment. Bitcoin Jumps To $79,000 StockCharts.com According to the issuer, HODL seeks to track the performance of its trust. The Trust's investment objective is to track the price of bitcoin, less the expenses of the Trust's operations. The Trust is a passive investment vehicle that does not seek to generate returns beyond tracking bitcoin's price. HODL is a small ETF, now with just $1.3 billion in assets under management as of April 22. Its annual expense ratio is low at only 20 basis points, while there is no trailing 12-month dividend yield . For full disclosure, I own the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) in my taxable account (a 1.2% portfolio position); however, I see HOLD and IBIT as quite comparable. Share-price momentum is rated poorly by Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system, currently at an F ETF Grade in that category. I’ll note later, however, that Bitcoin actually leads the global market in recent weeks, so the technicals and relative momentum are better than prospective investors may realize. Crypto Outperforming Fundstrat As far as risk is concerned, HOLD’s historical realized volatility is high at 38%, but it has certainly been higher in its brief history. Even with April 22’s best day since early March, implied volatility is in check at 42%. Liquidity is also strong with HODL. Its average daily volume is north of 2.3 million shares, while the median 30-day bid/ask spread is tight at 5 basis points. Keeping me upbeat about Bitcoin (and Bitcoin ETFs, including HODL) is its sudden relative strength surge. Now 30% off its February nadir, HOLD is +17% on a default 2-month zoom, which beats the S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) 3.2% total return. Bitcoin’s gains have been gold’s pain. The yellow metal is –7.4% in the past 2 months, as measured by the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD). All the while, bitcoin sentiment remains lackluster, so I would not be surprised to see HOLD continue to close the proverbial (and technical) alligator jaws to precious metals. HODL +30% From The February Low StockCharts.com How much room is there to run on Bitcoin? Well, at the very least, it could climb from the bottom slot on Goldman Sachs’ total return leaderboard. A rally just to the middle section in the chart below would imply significant gains over the months ahead. Bitcoin: Bottom Of The Pack YTD Goldman Sachs Speaking of the calendar, bitcoin has historically performed well from April through July. When scanning returns since the cryptocurrency’s inception, the current and out-month is the best pair on the calendar, save October-November. It’s prudent not to look at average returns, since the 2010-2013 period can distort the return picture. Hence, I prefer to gauge median monthly returns. There, we find that the April through July gains have been 11.5%, 6.7%, 3.8%, and 8.9%, respectively. So, seasonality is a friend to the “hodlers.” Bitcoin: Bullish Trends Through July Barchart The Technical Take With improved absolute and relative strength and bullish calendar trends, let’s call out specific bitcoin price levels to watch. Of course, with extremely low tracking error, investors can use this assessment to make informed risk management allocation choices for their HODL stakes. Notice in the chart below that Bitcoin has rallied to its best levels since early February. The ascent comes alongside a steep rise in the RSI momentum indicator at the top of the graph. That’s bullish confirmation between price and momentum, which is a positive. What’s not ideal is the long-term 200-day moving average, as it is declining, suggesting that the bears control the primary trend. Also take a look at the familiar bear flag pattern that we saw from November through the turn of the year. The current formation bears watching. Key will be for Bitcoin to rally through the November low of $80,600. Above that, there’s a confluence between the 200dma and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October to February plunge. So, it’s by no means an all-clear, but there are signs that the low from more than two months ago is durable. Bitcoin: $80,100 First Resistance, Mid-$80k-Range Key To Watch StockCharts.com The Bottom Line I have a buy rating on HODL. The spot bitcoin ETF appears attractive, given absolute and relative strength in the past month, while bitcoin’s technical situation has wood to chop, but the February low may indeed be the year’s bottom with sanguine seasonals ongoing.