Coinbase: Don't Enter Just Yet

Summary Coinbase Global, Inc. still depends heavily on crypto sentiment, and I expect more short-term weakness if Bitcoin continues its post-Q4 2025 downtrend. Even after dropping more than 50% from its highs, COIN does not yet look cheap enough to offer the kind of asymmetric upside I want. The business is improving underneath that, with 12 products already above $100M in annualized revenue and subscription revenue now above 40% of net revenue. That is why my view is Hold: near-term downside risk still matters, but long-term optionality in stablecoins, product expansion, and diversification remains very real. Introduction My previous coverage on Coinbase Global Inc. ( COIN ) started in April of 2025, where I rated the stock a Strong Buy. Until today, Coinbase has underperformed the S&P 500 index ( SPX ), but in the meantime, especially until my latest writeup in June 2025, in which I issued a more cautious stance and a Hold rating, it was up around 150%. Since then, the stock has dropped almost 50% until today. SA Regulation has become more favorable for Coinbase, but it is not fully resolved. The company recently received conditional OCC approval for a national trust charter, which would strengthen its institutional positioning if finalized, and broader U.S. crypto regulation is moving toward more clarity. Still, today’s New York lawsuit against Coinbase Financial Markets shows that meaningful legal and regulatory friction remains. I believe in Coinbase in the long run. It has strong product innovation upside, and exposure to crypto markets is a plus in years where crypto does well, which I am convinced we will see again in the future. In 2026, however, I do see more weakness for crypto, and even though Coinbase will ultimately reduce the share that its crypto activities take in its business, for now that is still significant and will affect Coinbase stock. Since I cannot perfectly predict timing, I am assigning a Hold rating at this point in time. Developments Crypto is set for lower lows in H2 2026, and Coinbase will ultimately follow. Historically, crypto performs poorly in midterm years, as does the stock market, and they are correlated. So far, crypto has followed the exact pattern of topping out in Q4 2025 (post-halving year) and dropping from there on. Price action remains within one standard deviation of the average of typical midterm year performance. Therefore, I believe it is better to listen to the signals than bluntly invest against them. The ongoing Iran war could be (one of) the catalyst(s) to enable further weakness. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Iran might not send delegates for negotiation if the blockage persists. Trump has said he does not want to extend the ceasefire, while both Washington and Tehran have accused the other side of violating it. That does not sound like de-escalation at all, yet markets are at all-time highs, despite potential negative impacts on the economy. There are currently no interest rate cuts expected until mid-2027, which could be far too late considering recent labor market weakness . Since crypto lacks fundamentals, technicals play an important role in valuing them. Price has been in a downtrend starting in late 2025. There was one rebound into the 50-week moving average, which got rejected and sold off significantly from there, forming lower lows around $60k. Now we are in such a rebound again, and I expect the same to occur. We might overshoot the current trading zone again, indicated by the two blue trend lines, or even tap the 50-week MA again, but after that, it seems like price will drop again. Historically, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) drops around 80% in bear markets, and even assuming some normalization, let's say a drawdown of 60%; that will bring us down to at least $50k. TradingView The reason why Coinbase will be affected by a weak crypto market stems from the following: Transaction revenues will decline as there is much less euphoria and thereby trading volume in the crypto space. Assets on the balance sheet will be marked down to reflect fallen crypto prices This also affects other income and thereby EPS, which might turn out below analysts' estimates The stock could project these results further into the future, and multiple compression may occur (that could then become a buying opportunity). I do want to make it clear, however, that I am not a bear on COIN at all. There is significant long-term upside optionality behind this stock, and I do recognize that. It is no secret that Coinbase has continuously been expanding their product offerings, which helps reduce crypto cycle dependence. 12 of these products already produce annualized revenues of over $100M, and four of them have been launched in 2025 and another four in 2024, indicating strong innovation momentum. COIN IR Subscription revenues continue to trend higher and now make up over 40% of net revenues as of FY2025. This highlights COIN's ongoing diversification efforts and provides them with stickier and more predictable sales. In theory, that should make the equity more valuable because future cash flows would need to be discounted less. COIN IR One of the most promising business lines is stablecoins. Average USDC held in Coinbase products is at an all-time high. Coinbase makes money from USDC primarily through reserve income shared with Circle, so rising balances directly support revenue. More broadly, stablecoins are increasingly being used for payments and settlement, with Visa reporting a $3.5B annualized stablecoin settlement run rate and the overall stablecoin market now above $320B . COIN IR Altogether, this can help create a strong flywheel for Coinbase, where they leverage their trust, causing higher AOP and product innovation, from which they can monetize better. COIN IR Valuation In my view, analysts' estimates can be largely disregarded for Coinbase, considering earnings surprise history . The combination of low trailing multiples and personal conviction for crypto and Coinbase as a business to perform well sooner rather than later is a better strategy. A long investment time horizon can work for Coinbase, but it is likely to include massive volatility swings. I would therefore rather buy during low sentiment and low multiples while having high conviction, just like in April of 2025. Despite not being historically high, COIN's P/S ratio does not reflect pessimism like in the previous cycle's midterm year, 2022. Instead, it is somewhat in between euphoric highs and depressed lows, making it neither particularly compelling to buy nor to sell here. Qualtrim COIN's weekly chart is neither particularly bullish nor very bearish. We can see price bouncing off strong support around $145, which has provided a base multiple times before. Since the low in early February, it seems like price is in an uptrend, though not a very clear one. RSI is creating higher highs and lower lows, which is bullish. Since early March, however, price has struggled in the $200-$215 region, creating significant upside wicks. This is also where the 200-week exponential moving average lies, potentially indicating a long-term zone price cannot convincingly close above for now. Throughout 2024 and 2025 (Bitcoin bull market years), trading Coinbase would have worked particularly well when trading weekly breakouts, as portrayed below. That setup offered a great risk-to-reward ratio. We could be working our way to breaking out of the most recent trend line this year, so that could be an idea to keep watching. TradingView Conclusion In my view, Coinbase has great next-cycle and long-term prospects. However, it is highly volatile and remains largely dependent on crypto markets, which themselves depend mostly on Bitcoin. I do see more weakness this year for Bitcoin, where one could get a better entry point into the stock, one with true asymmetrical upside. Still, selling now may be a little late. It's important to mention that this is a temporary thesis. I do think Coinbase will fare well in the long run, but I believe it could have to endure a bit more adversity this year, as opposed to many analysts who believe the bottom is already in. Since there are valid arguments for the latter as well, however, I am rating the stock a Hold instead of a Sell, so investors that already have exposure can benefit from potential near-term upside.