Summary Crypto-related stocks are outperforming both Bitcoin and broader equity markets YTD, a divergence driven by AI infrastructure pivots, stablecoin adoption and the ongoing equity bull market. Recent 13F filings show major asset managers are also reducing direct crypto exposure (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL) while rotating into selected crypto infrastructure names. Of all crypto market narratives, I think only two are valid: Bitcoin as a global reserve asset and stablecoins as a cross-border payments rail. We are in a narrative crisis. A third market narrative, that of crypto existing for the sake of actively trading it, is a zero-sum game corresponding with my long term bear case scenario for the industry. I rate Bitcoin a BUY as the only cryptocurrency with a compelling long-term investment case, while ETH is also moderately interesting. I see no BUY-worthy opportunities in the rest of the crypto space. While looking at the crypto market lately, one can notice a somewhat odd trend. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) is underperforming the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) Year-to-Date, with a -14%. At the same time however, many crypto-related names are actually outperforming not only Bitcoin but even equity markets (see below chart). Seeking Alpha Such is the case of the Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF ( FDIG ) (which I covered a little less than one year ago), the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF ( DAPP ), the Global X Blockchain ETF ( BKCH ) and even Block, Inc. ( XYZ ), Jack Dorsey’s Fintech company (the latter, however, beats BTC YTD, but not the S&P 500). These tickers contain, for the most part, crypto "infrastructure" players such as IREN Limited ( IREN ), Coinbase, Inc. ( COIN ), Galaxy Digital Inc. ( GLXY ) or Robinhood Markets Inc. ( HOOD ). Today, I am discussing why these names are rallying at a time when the main crypto a sset ( BTC ) seems to be struggling, and whether we should expect this trend to reverse or continue. Asset managers are exiting some crypto-related assets, increasing others Recent 13F filings for Q1 2026 (ended March 31) reveal some de-risking by several asset managers and hedge funds in crypto-related exposures. Generally speaking, asset managers seem to be decreasing their direct exposure to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum ( ETH-USD ), while some are increasing exposure to selected infrastructure plays. For example, Capula Management fully liquidated large positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, mostly held via the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ). The fund also completely exited its Coinbase position, retaining only a small options stake. Millennium Management sharply reduced Bitcoin ETF holdings and Ethereum exposure. Hedge funds are also broadly retreating from Bitcoin and Ethereum. Goldman Sachs followed the pack and trimmed Bitcoin and Ether ETF positions, and fully exited Ripple ( XRP-USD ) and Solana ( SOL-USD ) holdings. However, the bank also rotated their exposure, increasing stakes in crypto infrastructure names like GLXY, COIN and Robinhood. Overall, I think what we are seeing echoes how the market has moved in recent months: the underlying cryptocurrencies are suffering, while related infrastructure stocks thrive. Crypto’s “fundamental” value is mostly tied to active trading of crypto itself In my very first coverage of Bitcoin on Seeking Alpha, I outlined what a prolonged BTC bear case could look like. My idea was (and still is) that a long term bear case for Bitcoin would look like a degeneration into an “online casino”. In that scenario, BTC and other cryptocurrencies would be stuck fluctuating between a certain range, with their only function (and value) being that of actively trading them. I think what we are witnessing in the cryptocurrency market at the moment resonates with my bear case: cryptocurrencies have lagged behind equity markets and are suffering what some people refer to as a “ narrative problem ”, in that they have failed to act as a hedge against inflation or deliver against DeFi expectations, at least short term (more of my thoughts later in the article). Blockchain dot com But, at the same time, crypto-related trading has been roughly flat for the past couple of years, as the chart above shows. This is in my view a zero-sum game, in that the main function of the asset class is increasingly becoming trading of the same asset class. In this context, it makes sense to me that companies that are exposed to crypto trading, rather than cryptocurrency themselves, are doing better than the underlying assets. Value is generated in the fees collected by brokers and infrastructure players, rather than on the blockchain themselves. There is little value creation within the blockchains, by design To see why an investment case can be made more on crypto-related assets than on cryptocurrencies, it is helpful to first of all grasp the functioning of these blockchains. In very simple terms, anyone using a blockchain like Ethereum to settle transactions pays a fee to the blockchain. These fees are now relatively modest, especially since the emergence of “ Layer 2 ” networks, which batch transactions and push most of the activity (and revenue) off the main chain. The numbers tell a story of limited value creation. In 2025 , Ethereum’s Layer 1 generated only around $10 million in total revenue from L2 settlement fees for the entire year, despite facilitating hundreds of billions in underlying transaction volume. Overall, Ethereum’s annual revenue dropped sharply from $2.52 billion to $604 million. Even high-performing Layer 2 solutions like Base generated $80 million in revenue but passed on just $6.7 million to Ethereum (an 8% capture rate). For reference, a company like Block (which also operates in payments and crypto) generated roughly $24 billion in total revenue in 2025 while processing hundreds of billions in payment volume. This may also explain why many asset managers are more comfortable owning the “picks and shovels” of crypto (COIN, HOOD, GLXY, etc.) rather than betting directly on the underlying crypto assets themselves. But this is a market of crypto, not a crypto market As an observer of the crypto space and a Bitcoin bull, I have always been clear about one thing: that there is no such thing as a “crypto market”, intended as one only crypto asset . Each cryptocurrency has its own team, profile and intended objectives. There are literally tens of thousands of semi- serious cryptocurrency projects that have been launched in the last decade, with millions more created (today, it takes five minutes to launch a token with minimal expertise needed). It is however my belief that an investment case can seriously be made only for Bitcoin and, to a lesser extent, for perhaps 2–3 other blockchains. If there is one chart to prove this idea, it is the one below, showcasing the evolution of market capitalizations of major crypto assets in the past five years. Blockchain dot com Bitcoin has only grown to be more and more dominant in the cryptocurrency space. And I think this shows that Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency that has the most solid market narrative, and the one that has not necessarily succumbed to a logic of active trading rather than real value creation. In this regard, I continue seeing it as the most interesting asymmetric bet in this space. I see two valid crypto market narratives: stablecoins and BTC as a reserve asset The other two cryptocurrencies that have shown some growth in “dominance” in the past years are, unsurprisingly, Thether USD ( USDT-USD) and USDC-USD ( USDC ), two stablecoins used by traders and recently aided by regulatory clarity from Trump’s administration. That of stablecoins is, in my view, the only other market narrative that has found some solid footing in the past few years. The idea behind stablecoins is relatively simple: by bringing fiat currencies on the blockchain 1:1, you can benefit from the underlying technology (speed of transfer, transparency, low fees) without being exposed to the volatility of a specific cryptocurrency. Stablecoins are used by crypto traders but also by companies and people to send money across borders, for peer-to-peer lending and even as a hedge against inflation in countries where accessing USD via Traditional financial systems is difficult. Of course however, investing in a stablecoin as an investment makes no sense as it is by definition pegged to the underlying currency. What may make sense is investing in financial institutions and projects tied to the use of stablecoins, which is another topic altogether. By contrast, the market narrative of Bitcoin is that of a reserve asset. Having covered it extensively in the past, I am not going to repeat myself. What I will say is that Bitcoin has all the technical characteristics to be a superior global reserve asset: scarcity, durability, divisibility, fungibility, portability and verifiability. Whether or not this will actually happen is a game theory argument and represents the very investment case for BTC. We could be seeing a market narrative crisis for broader DeFi For what concerns other cryptocurrencies, I think we may be seeing a crisis in their market narrative. Most cryptocurrency projects promised that DeFi (Decentralized Finance) would disrupt TradFi (Traditional Finance). Yet, so far, adoption has been somewhat lagging. Not only have these cryptocurrencies been decreasing their dominance against Bitcoin, but overall exchange volumes for the industry have been stagnant or even declining (see metrics below). The Block Even more worryingly, many cryptocurrencies that were in the top 10 by market capitalization during the 2020-2021 BTC bull market have now exited that list and their on-chain activity has never recovered to ATHs. Examples are Cardano USD ( ADA-USD ), Polkadot ( DOT-USD ), Monero USD ( XMR-USD ) and Litecoin USD ( LTC-USD ). The only two projects that have shown some resilience in active usage are Ethereum and, to a lesser extent, Solana (see chart below). The Block Such a recent increase on the Ethereum network is, however, due once again to the stablecoin narrative. USDC transfer volume on Ethereum hit $1.7 trillion in February 2026 alone (up ~250% year-over-year) as Ethereum became the default settlement rail for both retail and institutional stablecoin flows. Ethereum now hosts over 50% of all stablecoin supply globally. This was possible thanks to an update in the Ethereum blockchain, which drastically reduced gas fees. While this is good for ETH adoption it also creates very limited value within the blockchain itself. To be clear, there still are plenty of other DeFi applications taking place on ETH, SOL and even other blockchains, such as automated market making , restaking and on-chain synthetic assets tracking equities or commodities. I find however that these have failed to disrupt traditional finance, and largely still focus on facilitating active trading of cryptocurrencies themselves. Tuning out the noise: AI & the equity bull market are skewing results Stablecoins adoption and active trading are two dynamics that may directly help explain the outperformance of crypto-related stocks over cryptocurrencies themselves. But there is another dynamic that may explain this phenomenon even better. That is, the fact that some crypto stocks are pivoting into the AI space. A quick look at the top holdings on FDIG, DAPP and BKCH (see below table) helps explain this. Top Holding FDIG DAPP BKCH 1 IREN IREN IREN 2 APLD APLD APLD 3 HUT BMNR COIN 4 COIN CIFR BMNR 5 CRCL COIN HUT 6 WULF CLSK RIOT 7 CIFR HUT WULF 8 MARA XYZ MARA 9 RIOT CRCL CLSK 10 CLSK RIOT CIFR IREN, Applied Digital Corporation ( APLD ), CleanSpark, Inc ( CLSK ) and TeraWulf Inc. ( WULF ) are all examples of companies that were originally only active in the crypto space (mostly crypto mining), but recently pivoted to AI by providing data center infrastructure to AI hyperscalers. Their outperformance has mostly to do with a market narrative that is now well outside that of crypto. And a similar market narrative outside of crypto concerns online brokers like Robinhood and Coinbase. These brokers have traditionally relied on crypto trading as a key source of income. However, they all have also benefited from a continued equity bull market, and pivoted to a more comprehensive offering of financial products. In this sense, much of the outperformance we are seeing in some crypto-related stocks may not have much to do with crypto itself. Risks to my thesis The main risk to my thesis is that a new, valid and powerful market narrative forms for cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin and stablecoins. This may come in the form of a decentralized neobank, or a new project that solves the blockchain trilemma . Ultimately, whatever narrative that can benefit specifically the underlying blockchains rather than companies leveraging the technology could result in these outperforming the market. Something must also be said in regards to Ethereum itself. Even if not much value is created on the Ethereum blockchain, the sheer scarcity of the ETH token in a context of stablecoins usage may ultimately prove bullish for ETH. Transactions on the Ethereum network are, after all, seeing a significant increase. This higher demand for ETH driven by stablecoins (a valid market narrative) may create enough demand for ETH to create a bull case. I am myself moderately bullish on ETH as the underlying technology for most DeFi projects, but I only have a very small position in my portfolio. For what concerns Bitcoin specifically, on the other hand, my bull thesis could be disrupted by simple game theory. While Bitcoin has the technical characteristics to become a new global reserve asset, it maturing into one depends on actors (central banks, pension funds, governments) actually adopting it at scale. It remains to be seen whether this is going to happen or not, and BTC remains a high stake bet today. Conclusion: I don't see a BUY case for crypto outside of Bitcoin Many cryptocurrencies promised to bring traditional finance to a DeFi world with transparency, low fees and decentralization at its core. The industry has so far failed to gain significant traction: the value of virtually all cryptocurrencies has declined over time against Bitcoin, exchanged volumes have been declining and many crypto projects that used to be in the top 10 by market capitalization have all but disappeared. I think the only valid crypto market narratives at this point are: Bitcoin’s old narrative as a new, global reserve asset. Stablecoins, used for cross border payments, p2p lending and for facilitating crypto trading. Active trading on cryptocurrencies (a zero-sum game for the industry). Further proof that other market narratives are undergoing a crisis is that many formerly crypto companies have (successfully) pivoted into the AI space. This dynamic is what, in my view, is behind recent market movements. While the crypto space overall is underperforming equities, some crypto-related stocks are doing surprisingly well. Asset managers are also (for the most part) exiting the main blockchains (BTC included), but keep betting on some crypto-related stocks. Another factor contributing to this is likely the bull equity market aiding the financial success of online brokers. In this context, I think Bitcoin remains one of the few (and by far the main) cryptocurrency that an investment case can be made for. It remains a bet on a new, superior form of global reserve asset. It has, however, lagged in the last months, and remains a high risk bet. Ethereum could also be seen as an interesting bet, as the main blockchain behind stablecoins. As for the rest of the crypto industry in its strict sense (i.e. net of AI-driven performance), I personally don’t find anything worth a BUY rating at this time.
XRP удержался у $1,32
